Environmental Modelling and Integrated Assessment

Offered in association with Fenner School. In this course the major model types used to represent environmental systems are studied. Mathematical emphasis on how they are constructed will use the theory of inverse problems while the practical emphasis uses systems methodology. The focus will be on hydrological systems and their basic processes, combined with the constraints imposed by the limitations of real observational data. It will be assumed that students have a reasonable grasp of different model types (time series, PDE/ODE-based models, frequency domain models) as well as understanding of the issue of uncertainty in model inputs, structure and observed outputs. The assessment of the course will be based on written reports on selected papers, as well as a project exploring a particular paper/model in more detail. The key component of the project will be proposing potential improvements in the work done, and doing at least some initial work on evaluating these improvements. This will include components of: - analytical evaluation of model behaviour - coding the original and improved versions of the model and conducting sensitivity analysis - exploration of structure of uncertainty in model inputs. - Propagating uncertainty in inputs through the model Note: Graduate students attend joint classes with undergraduates but are assessed separately.