International Security in the 21st Century

How to achieve 21st Century security in a multi-polar, multi-conceptual, and hyperconnected world where national and international security form a cluster of issues that reinforce each other? Think of domestic turmoil and populism in systemically important countries; the United States turning inward, or China imploding; lack of state capacity, e.g. to address rising cost of living and inflation; power competition in the Indo-Asia-Pacific; wars in Ukraine and the Middle East; nuclear escalation of great power conflict; the next pandemic; climate emergencies; disruptive technologies spinning out of control; the global economy fracturing into blocs; weaponized interdependence; and disruptions in global supply chains. Today’s security challenges tend to be complex problems without passport. They are not confined by sovereign borders, or limited to regions, spanning often more than one human generation. Hence, 21st Century security ought to be addressed in their wider systemic and long-term context, as clusters of issues can cascade into a ‘polycrisis’, impacting multiple systems in ways that significantly degrade humanity's prospects across generations. In this advanced course, students will get a better understanding of how international security is challenged by the risk of systemic disruptions that not only spread within a single system but may also spill over into other systems. Particular attention will be paid to the trinity of international security, risk, and uncertainty. Identifying, assessing, and mitigating risk are essential capabilities for achieving international security. This course will facilitate the development of transferable skills that help students to strategically imagine plausible risk scenarios most relevant to 21st Century international security.